Increases and decreases in operating capacity coexist, with spot cargo supply remaining tight. In the short term, alumina prices will maintain a fluctuating trend [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on May 12

Futures Market: Last Friday, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 2,820 yuan/mt in the night session, with a high of 2,826 yuan/mt, a low of 2,786 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,810 yuan/mt, down 17 yuan/mt or 0.60% from the previous close. The open interest was 281,000 lots.

Ore: As of May 9, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $77.47/mt, down $0.51/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $75/mt, down $1/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $80/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $72/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Industry News:

(1) Bauxite Port Inventory: According to SMM statistics on May 9, the total bauxite inventory at nine domestic ports was 19.72 million mt, a decrease of 470,000 mt from the previous week.

Basis Report: According to SMM data, on May 9, the SMM alumina index had a premium of 73 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant Report: On May 9, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 7,213 mt from the previous trading day to 242,600 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in the Shandong region remained unchanged at 601 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in the Henan region remained unchanged at 3,001 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in the Guangxi region decreased by 2,101 mt from the previous trading day to 20,700 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in the Gansu region remained unchanged at 16,800 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in the Xinjiang region decreased by 5,112 mt from the previous trading day to 201,500 mt.

Overseas Market: As of May 9, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $348/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $19.80/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.26. This price translates to approximately 3,097 yuan/mt for the external selling price at major domestic ports, which is 200.46 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed.

Summary: Last week, there were both increases and decreases in the operating capacity of alumina enterprises, with the total operating capacity slightly decreasing by 80,000 mt/year. It is expected that some alumina enterprises will conduct maintenance in the subsequent period, while new alumina capacity is expected to continue to be commissioned and released, leading to fluctuations in the operating capacity of alumina in the short term. Recently, downstream feedback indicates that spot cargo availability is tight in some regions. With suppliers standing firm on quotes, spot prices may rebound slightly. However, on the cost side, bauxite prices have fallen significantly compared to the previous period, weakening the cost support.Overall, the alumina market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]